With the possibility of new tariffs under a second Trump presidency, many homeowners and buyers are wondering:
π What does this mean for the Canadian housing market?
While we can’t predict the future with certainty, history and economic patterns suggest a few key trends that could unfold. Let’s break down how these potential tariffs could impact home prices, interest rates, and affordability.
1οΈβ£ Interest Rates: A Short-Term Drop, Then a Potential Rise
One of the biggest factors in the housing market is interest rates, and tariffs could lead to some big swings in borrowing costs.
- Short-term impact: Central banks, including the Bank of Canada, may respond to economic uncertainty by cutting interest rates to keep borrowing affordable and stimulate spending.
- A temporary boost: If rates drop, homebuyers could benefit from lower mortgage costs, creating a surge in demand and potentially driving home prices up.
- Long-term reality: Over time, tariffs can increase the cost of goods, leading to higher inflation. If inflation becomes a problem, the Bank of Canada may have no choice but to raise interest rates, making mortgages more expensive in the future.
This cycle could create a window of opportunity for buyers to lock in lower rates before potential hikes return.
2οΈβ£ Home Prices Could Rise Due to Higher Construction Costs
Many key materials used in home construction—like lumber, steel, and aluminum—are imported. If Trump imposes tariffs on these goods, the cost of building new homes in Canada could increase significantly.
π§ Higher construction costs = More expensive new builds
π¨ Renovations become pricier = Homeowners may be less likely to sell
π Limited inventory = Increased competition among buyers
If supply shrinks while demand stays strong, home prices could rise—making it even harder for first-time buyers to enter the market.
3οΈβ£ Will More Foreign Investors Enter the Canadian Market?
If U.S. real estate becomes less attractive due to economic uncertainty, foreign investors may look to Canada instead.
π Major cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal could see increased interest from international buyers, driving up demand in an already tight market.
If investor activity picks up, it could lead to:
β Increased home prices in high-demand areas
β More competition for buyers
β Potential policy changes from the government to regulate foreign ownership
This could further complicate affordability for local buyers, especially those already struggling with high home prices.
4οΈβ£ Inflation & The Cost of Living: A Hidden Housing Market Factor
Tariffs don’t just impact real estate—they affect the price of everyday goods like groceries, appliances, and vehicles. If inflation rises due to tariffs, Canadian households could see:
π² Higher costs of living = Less disposable income for home purchases
π Tighter budgets = Fewer buyers entering the housing market
π¦ Potential policy shifts = The Bank of Canada adjusting rates to balance inflation and affordability
This means that even if home prices don’t skyrocket, fewer buyers might be able to afford a home due to increasing day-to-day expenses.
What Should Buyers and Sellers Do Now?
While the full impact remains uncertain, strategic planning is key in any shifting market.
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If You’re a Buyer: Consider locking in a mortgage while rates are lower before potential future hikes.
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If You’re a Seller: If demand increases due to lower rates, it could be an opportune time to list your home before affordability declines.
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If You’re an Investor: Changing market conditions often create opportunities—diversifying your portfolio now could help you stay ahead.
Final Thoughts: Stay Ahead of the Market
The housing market is always evolving, and economic policies like tariffs can have ripple effects on affordability, prices, and interest rates. Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, staying informed is the best way to make confident decisions.
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Want to discuss how this could impact your real estate plans? Let’s connect! https://calendly.com/shawnkingrealestate/meet
I’ll be keeping a close eye on these developments and sharing updates as they unfold. Stay tuned!